So we came from a dark place last time, and I can’t guarantee it’s going to get any brighter… In this episode we’ll see the framework under fire, friends fall apart, a ‘breakthrough’ and an exciting twist… but I’m getting ahead of myself.

As everyone limped out of ‘Brokenhagen’ the whole UN process came under serious criticism.

The Cancun conference in 2010 was seen as one of the UNFCCC’s last chances to prove itself. Working in its favour, expectations had been lowered, media attention was diminished, and hopes in general were low. So, maybe unsurprisingly, most people seemed pretty positive about the Cancun conference.

What was it that came out of Cancun that made people so happy? Basically the main points from the Copenhagen Accord got some more signatures.

So apparently Cancun was good. However the Cancun agreements were still voluntary goals - this was not the sort of deal people expected to replace the Kyoto Protocol. But everything was about to change in Durban 2011…

Before we get there though (suspense! -not just me adding in important bits of information late), I should probably mention that throughout the negotiations the countries tend to persuade/argue for what they want in groups. The personalities of some of the major negotiation groups are outlined below - using Dungeons and Dragons alignments and movie characters…

(Note: I tried to stay away from the “evil” tag, since most of the groups do have sympathetic motivations - however, keep in mind that many of these group do obstruct the negotiations)

- The BASIC countries

This group is made up of Brazil, South Africa, India and China - together they account for 28.5% of emissions. This group contains many of the emerging economies and they are generally hell-bent on preserving “common but differentiated responsibilities” so they can continue to burn fossil fuels and speed development, whilst developed countries live up to their responsibilities (historically the developed nations emitted the most carbon dioxide) and bear the brunt of the work.

- The European Union

They announced early on that they were going to take the lead in international climate politics. Currently they are actually close to meeting their Kyoto targets and are very invested in the UNFCCC process. They tend to prefer the stricter and more legally binding options. The negotiations used to be all about the clashes between the US and the EU - However, since Copenhagen it has been more about the BASIC group and the US.

- The US and their followers

Hardly the heroes of the piece - the only country not to sign up to the Kyoto Protocol. They have wanted to end the “common but differentiated responsibilities” principle since forever - and have used this as an excuse for not acting. They tend to favour flexible voluntary targets rather than legally binding ones.

- AOSIS

If anyone’s a hero in these negotiations, it’s probably these guys - The Alliance of Small Island States. They include some of the countries most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and during the Copenhagen conference they were described as the “moral conscience” of the talks. However, they sometimes get accused of being too ambitious and not politically realistic enough.

Because of these different characters and motivations the UNFCCC talks often stall. In particular, you can see that the BASIC group and the US take opposing sides on the “common but differentiated responsibilities” issue. But these deadlocks finally started to loosen up in Durban 2011…

First of all, the EU teamed up with AOSIS and the LDCs (Least Developed Countries) to fight for a new agreement that could replace the Kyoto Protocol and Cancun agreements. They wanted this agreement to be legally binding and apply to all countries (the Copenhagen/Cancun agreements were not legally binding).

This made it difficult for India and China to portray the agreement (which would’ve applied legally binding targets to developing countries) as a conspiracy against developing countries.

Then even Africa and Brazil seemed to break away from BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) - with Africa announcing that India did not speak for them. With only India holding out on the deal, the Indian and European delegates were encouraged to “go into a huddle” and thrash out an agreement.

Eventually there was a breakthrough! All of the parties agreed to create “a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force” which would replace the Kyoto protocol and the Cancun agreements. This protocol… thingy would be signed in 2015 and come into force in 2020.

The other big turnabout with this agreement is that it seems to move away from the enshrined principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”. The new agreement says that the “legal instrument” will be applicable to all countries - i.e. developed and developing.

Sometimes the Durban Platform is described as a deal where everyone won - America finally got the death of “common but differentiated responsibilities” (maybe… I don’t think that the BASIC group would agree with that analysis), the EU finally got a legally binding agreement on the table, and the developing nations secured some wins in the finance transfer area.

But was this really “a landmark climate deal”? Or was this conference just kicking major conflicts further down the line? The terms: applicable “to all parties” and “outcome with legal force” are very open to interpretation, and nobody is saying the word “treaty”.

And another thing! The Kyoto Protocol ended in 2012, and the new protocol (… legal instrument … outcome with legal force… thingamajig!) isn’t due until 2015 (and won’t come into force until 2020) what do we have in the meantime?

The Kyoto Protocol! Well, the Kyoto Protocol commitment period 2. In Doha 2012 the Kyoto Protocol was extended until 2020. However, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, and Russia all pulled out of it. The small print: Kyoto Protocol now covers only 15% of emissions.

There are many other things I wish this blog post would go into - what were the results of the Kyoto Protocol? Where might the negotiations go next? What could the 2015 deal look like? Whatever happened to those carbon markets … But I’ve run out of steam and this blog post is over 1000 words long, so on that note…